2014-01-08 12:30 UTC G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storming Expected
SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G3 (Strong) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9 and 10. The source of this disturbance is a fairly fast Earth-directed coronal mass ejection (CME) launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) on January 7. Full evaluation and modeling of this event has refined the forecast and indicates a fairly direct interaction with Earth, with the WSA-Enlil model putting arrival mid-morning UTC on January 9 (very early morning EST). In addition, the S2 (Moderate) Solar Radiation Storm associated with this event is currently near, but below, the S3 (Strong) threshold, with values leveling off at this time. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic.
The incoming CME has slowed down which means it will take longer to get here BUT the predicted geomagnetic storm has increased in intensity from G2 to G3 and the latitudes affected has dipped down another 5 degrees to 50 degrees N and poleward.
More updates as they come in.
Sky Guy at AAS
Giant Sunspot Group AR1944 lived up to expectations and blew its spot today at 1:32 pm EST producing a powerful X-class solar flare.
An incoming Coronal Mass Ejection (CME) is headed towards Earth.
Here is the latest Space Weather Alert for this event from NOAA NWS Space Weather Prediction Center:
2014-01-07 22:11 UTC CME Impacts Expected January 9
SWPC Forecasters are anticipating G2 (Moderate) Geomagnetic Storm conditions to occur on January 9, followed by G1 (Minor) levels January 10. The source of this pulse is an Earth-directed CME launched from centrally-located Region 1944 at 1832 UTC (1:32 p.m. EST) today January 7. This forecast is pending the acquisition of some data as yet unavailable, and may be updated. In addition, the current S1 (Minor) Solar Radiation Storm is likely to linger for another 24 hours. At the Sun, Region 1944 remains well-placed and energetic. Watch here for more as conditions warrant.
I will update/Tweet as more information comes in.
Sky Guy at AAS.