AURORA ALERT

 Hey, Space Placers!

A very fast CME created by today's X5-flare. The snowy speckles in this SOHO coronagraph image are caused by high-energy protons accelerated by shock waves in the CME. 

Credit: NASA vis Spaceweather.com

Today is Veteran’s Day. My personal gratitude goes out to my fellow veterans who served our country and to those who serve today.

To update happenings on our star since last week https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2025/11/look-up-northern-lights-sighting-possible-thursday-from-dc-region/. 

“Sunspot 4274 erupted again this morning, producing its strongest (solar) flare yet (This is the strongest solar flare for 2025 https://www.space.com/astronomy/sun/sun-unleashes-strongest-solar-flare-of-2025-sparking-radio-blackouts-across-africa-and-europe?utm_term=1A1238DB-D1A8-4DE2-8262-81672DE2FA7D&lrh=580ce74a54c8de843fea75d3b1d0cee5b2f8e39902059bf281901a850fac1944&utm_campaign=58E4DE65-C57F-4CD3-9A5A-609994E2C5A9&utm_medium=email&utm_content=4AB0F5C7-6A9B-4EEC-8178-484AF38A432A&utm_source=SmartBrief ): An X5-class powerhouse (the highest classification https://svs.gsfc.nasa.gov/10109) . The flare caused a deep shortwave radio blackout https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/solar-flares-radio-blackouts  over southern Africa and hurled a fast coronal mass ejection (CME) https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/phenomena/coronal-mass-ejections directly toward Earth. According to a preliminary NASA model, the CME will reach Earth late on Nov. 12th, close behind the Cannibal CME described below. This justifies a G4 geomagnetic storm watch for Nov 12th and 13th.” 

“Strong geomagnetic storms http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/noaa-scales-explanation are possible on Nov. 12th when two CMEs are expected to hit Earth's magnetic field. In fact, the two storm clouds could merge to form a potent "Cannibal CME." Cannibal CMEs contain shock waves and enhanced magnetic fields that do a good job sparking and amplifying geomagnetic storms. The last time one hit, on April 15, 2025, it caused a severe G4-class storm with auroras sighted as far south as France.”

T”he "cannibal" forecast is far from certain. NOAA's model shows the two CMEs merging just before they reach Earth. They could just as easily merge after passing our planet. If that happens, the double blow could still spark a strong G3 geomagnetic storm, so it's a win-win. Sky watchers should be alert for auroras on Wednesday night https://spaceweather.com/archive.php?view=1&day=11&month=11&year=2025  .” 

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) Space Weather Prediction Center (SWPC)  https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/  issued this statement this morning: 

“”EXPECTATIONS: Very preliminary analysis of this CME suggests a likely arrival at Earth. Early speed estimates are wide ranging, but we are narrowing a consensus down. The shock ahead of the CME may be travelling at a very fast 4.4 million mph and the bulk material moving along at about 3.3 million mph. These speeds suggest the CME shock could reach Earth in the late night hours tonight, 11 Nov, to early morning of 12 Nov.”

“EFFECTS: While this CME does not appear to be aimed directly at Earth, there does appear to be enough of an Earth-directed component to raise the possibility about the need for a G4 or greater Watch. SWPC forecasters are still evaluating the situation and will make a decision soon.The general public should consider monitoring our webpage for the latest information and updates.”

NOAA did indeed issue such a watch today at 12:05 PM EST:

WATCH: Geomagnetic Storm Category G4 or Greater Predicted

Highest Storm Level Predicted by Day:

Nov 12:  G4 (Severe)   Nov 13:  G3 (Strong

Potential Impacts: Area of impact primarily poleward of 45 degrees Geomagnetic Latitude.

Induced Currents - Possible widespread voltage control problems and some protective systems may mistakenly trip out key assets from the power grid. Induced pipeline currents intensify.

Spacecraft - Systems may experience surface charging; increased drag on low earth orbit satellites, and tracking and orientation problems may occur.

Navigation - Satellite navigation (GPS) degraded or inoperable for hours.

Radio - HF (high frequency) radio propagation sporadic or blacked out.

Aurora - Aurora may be seen as low as Alabama and northern California.

These Geomagnetic Storms and associated Aurora events forecasted are not predicted to reach the historic levels of May 10th of 2024 https://wtop.com/the-space-place/2024/05/a-severe-geomagnetic-storm-may-be-coming-what-does-that-mean/  . But, we should be watching the skies just in case the Aurora appear.

For the DMV, SWPC’s two-day Aurora forecast https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/communities/aurora-dashboard-experimental  and our forecasted skies means there is a good chance we MAY detect Aurora to the North.

If the SWPC forecast holds, Aurora conditions for the DMV may be strong enough tonight after it gets dark into the early morning hours to allow us to detect Aurora visually and with our cameras. The predicted G4 levels make it a real possibility.

It will be well worth taking a look to the North tonight after dark until dawn from a dark sky site with a clear horizon. You might be able to visually detect some color in the sky if bright Aurora are present but they will likely be low on the Northern horizon.

Your camera and/or smartphone significantly improve your chances of detecting and imaging the Aurora due to their digital sensors. Even if you do not see Aurora, photograph the Northern horizon to possibly get an image of them.

Use a camera or smartphone that can take exposures of several seconds - including using “Night Sky” or “Low Light” settings if your camera has them - of the Northern horizon. Steady the camera or use a tripod for best image results. The camera can capture Aurora that your eyes did not  https://www.space.com/how-to-photograph-the-aurora .

Our best bet is to monitor Clear Sky Chart (input your location) https://www.cleardarksky.com/csk/  for sky conditions, NOAA https://www.swpc.noaa.gov/  and space related social media sites  spaceweatherlive.com ,   EarthSky.org , space.com for Aurora viewing updates. There also are Aurora apps available as well to help you; I use Aurora Pro and Glendale App.

Good luck, Aurora chasers…….

Sky Guy in VA